The El Niño / La Niña forecast for next year
Forecasting ENSO a year out is hard because the spring predictability barrier breaks model skill. Instead of extrapolating, this tracker reports empirical odds straight from NOAA's record.
For a given starting period, it matches every like-for-like period in NOAA’s record since 1950 and tallies what actually happened one year later. The result is a historical probability of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral conditions a year out, rather than a single model run.
What followed today’s conditions, historically
The tropical Pacific is currently El Niño (RONI 0.50°C, Apr–May–Jun 2026). Across 16 prior years that started AMJ in a El Niño phase, conditions one year later were:
- 19% La Niña
- 44% Neutral
- 38% El Niño
Based on 16 historical analogs. Open the Forecast tab on the dashboard to explore odds for any starting period and trend.
The Spring Predictability Barrier
ENSO transitions are hard to call across the Spring Predictability Barrier. In Northern Hemisphere spring, ocean–atmosphere coupling is weakest, so year-over-year linear models tend to miss. This tracker sidesteps the problem by matching like-for-like periods: it reads empirical outcomes straight from NOAA’s record rather than fitting a model across the barrier.